You make a very compelling argument. My argument is based on these assumptions/hypotheses:

• Software will be the most important part of the ecosystem and likely very proprietary
• Network effect and relatively high cost/control of software will make new entrance very tough. It’s why I use Uber even though they have so many issues — they have, by far, the most drivers (maybe Lyft is close in some cities, but there is no number 3)
• Vertical integration of capital (vehicles, contracts for power/services, licensing), software and marketing (ie customer relationships) will lead to huge cost savings and better capacity — which will favor a small number of very large players
• Vehicles optimized for autonomous service delivery will be fairly expensive, but durable (ie long hardware life) and favor companies with lots of cheap capital — especially at scale
• I think multiple, large companies will own 80% of market share. There may be new innovations and market changes that lead to large companies coming and going, but I believe the structure will overwhelmingly favor the well-capitalized, well-connected companies

I look at the consolidation and near monopolies today of cell phone providers, oil companies, cable/ISP, entertainment, shipping, Amazon, etc… and are common patterns — winners take most.

I also worry that the fake populism spreading around the world may further exasperate this as corruption increases and governments become more bribable (by large oligopolies).

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I hope you’re right. I like your version better.